In the fall of 2023, MIR Insight unveiled a six-month prediction for Total US Apparel Imports at the Dornbirn-GFC. The results have now been tallied, and MIR’s forecast achieved an astonishing 95.05% accuracy. To put this in perspective, a typical six-month industry forecast hovers around 85.28% accuracy, meaning a 297% higher error rate.
Now, time has passed, and the actual results are in:
MIR’s forecast has been on average 95.05% correct. A 6-month average forecast, an industry standard, would only reach 85.28% accuracy, meaning the error would be 297% higher.
Why did MIR’s forecast outperform so significantly?
The answer is the following:
We base our forecast on a selection of the most important influence factors identified automatically out of billions of market data. The factors displayed are a mix of macroeconomic factors (1+6), factors specific to the textile industry (7) and the raw materials needed for textile production (2, 9).
MIR ‘finds the shoe that fits’ for the dataset we forecast and supercharges forecasting accuracy:
- We connect and source the most promising data sources,
- We set them in contact with the datasets to be forecast,
- We identify which datasets relate to the indicator we want to forecast,
- And we run an AI-model, which experiments with dozens of such market indicators dynamically to find the ideal balance for maximum forecasting accuracy.
Why is this relevant for my business?
Out of 2 reasons:
- Did you know how costly wrong planning can be? Experts estimate that every 15% in forecasting error reduction leads to a 3% expansion of your pre-tax profit (Source). If our example was a demand forecast, with MIR’s forecast, you would reach a cost saving of 13.2% in pre-tax profits.
- All the hours searching and identifying key early warning indicators? Do you like flipping through irrelevant and expensive market research reports? We take care of that — we find the key indicators for you and forecast them at the same time.
What does this mean for you?
Get in touch via bjol@mirinsight.com if you are interested in finding the early warning indicators in the market that predict your business success and if you are eager to forecast crucial future trends.
